Over the past two-and-a-half years, events in war-torn Sudan have been marked by wild swings — not only between which side of the conflict, but also between moments of fleeting hope and utter despair.
Could it be this week, as one of the darkest moments of war was followed by at least a small step toward peace?
The nadir was reached last week, when the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — the paramilitary group that controls much of the country’s west — Finally seized The town of El Fasher, the last remaining stronghold of the Sudanese army in the Darfur region, after an 18-month siege aimed at starving the town’s resistance. (The RSF is a descendant of the infamous Janjaweed militia accused of atrocities during the Darfur genocide of the mid-2000s.)
There were local and international officials Raising the alarm since last year Carnage is likely if El Fasher falls, and information about what is happening inside the city is still limited, with piles of corpses and bloodstains on the ground, there is reason to believe the worst. Visible from space. Reports from survivors, as well as horrific videos posted online, testify to mass killings and gang rapes
Arjan Hehnkamp, the Darfur crisis leader at the NGO International Rescue Committee who was recently on the ground in Tabila — the town El Fasher residents fled to — told Vox this week that the most disturbing thing he’s seen is how few of the expected number of displaced people are, and in particular, how few are adult men.
“The fact that they’re coming in such small numbers is a story in itself,” Hehnkamp said. “It raises the question, ‘Where is the rest of the population of El Fasher?'”
Also this week, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the leading international authority on the hunger crisis, declared that there was a famine Ins El Fasher, as well as in Kad, a town in the Central Kordofan region of Sudan. This makes 2025 a rare year in which there is an IPC Famine declared twice After declaring it for parts of Gaza in August.
At the same time, there was a small sign of political progress on Thursday when the RSF announced it would agree to one Proposal for a humanitarian cease-fire from the US-led mediation group known as the Quad. The other side of the conflict, the Sudanese army, has yet to formally respond to the proposal but treats it with suspicion. There are many experts It is not certain whether the RSF is actually planning to stop fightingAnd indeed, was drone attack After the announcement, the country’s army controlled the capital.
But there are still at least a few promising signs that the war may be turning a corner.
How we got here, briefly explained
There is a war in Sudan Killed more than 150,000 people and displaced more than 14 millionAnd that includes a dizzying number of armed groups, outside sponsors and motivators. But here is the simple version.
The roots of the current conflict go back to 2019, when a protest movement erupted against Sudan’s longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. In response to the mass unrest, Bashir’s top generals ousted him and arrested him. They first promised a transition to civilian rule, but instead, took control themselves. The two leaders, the general of the army. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – better known as “Hemedati”, the leader of the paramilitary RSF – agreed to share power, but they quickly fell out.
In 2023, the conflict erupted into war in the capital, Khartoum. The RSF initially appeared to have captured the capital and much of the surrounding area, but the army was able to regain control of Khartoum earlier this year.
In recent months, RSF has been able to strengthen its position and consolidate control in western Sudan, including Darfur, although it still operates periodically. Deadly drone strikes are well to the east. Both sides have been accused of atrocities in the war.
The army is led by the internationally recognized government of Sudan and supported by Egypt, Iran and much of the Arab world. The main sponsor of the RSF, which is under an international arms embargo, is the United Arab Emirates. The UAE denies providing money or weapons to the RSF, but the connection has been extensively documentedincluding by a recent Leaked UN report.
With the fall of El Fasher, the war has clearly entered a new phase, but what the phase will look like is still up in the air.
El Fasher was the last major base of the National Army in Darfur, meaning that the RSF has now integrated them Controls most of Western SudanAs well as key supply routes over. Darfur’s importance to RSF is both political — it is Hemedati’s home region and the group’s traditional support base — and economic — it is the site of many Profitable gold mining that provides the group with hard currency.
Sudan is now effectively divided between East and West. The war may have entered what is known as a “damaging stalemate”, where outright victory is impossible for either side, but they continue to bleed nonetheless. During the summer, RSF Established a parallel government in DarfurWhich could indicate a desire to consolidate its rule over the territories it currently controls, rather than trying to take over the entire country, even if it uses drones to attack the capital.
The international picture is also changing, with the United States becoming more involved. US policy in Sudan would be an exaggeration effective In past years, however, it was at least an active player in the region and could exert leverage. (Indeed, President George W. Bush was so preoccupied with matters involving Sudan and South Sudan that officials Jokingly, he could have been a desk officer at the State Department For the region.) Sudan has slowly slipped down the list of US priorities over the past 15 years or so, and has not received much attention from the second Trump administration in the first few months. (It is also true that, in general, at this time, the unfolding disaster in Darfur is receiving much less international attention.)
But that may change. After announcing a peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in late June, Trump’s ambassador to Africa, Massad Boulos (who is also Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law), said that Sudan was his next priority. This could be a matter where Bowles’ close ties – political and financial – between Trump’s in-laws and the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies could be an advantage. It is fair to ask the administration why Soon this leverage and influence did not use anythingEspecially with the UAE. Notably, when the United States, at the very end of the Biden administration, Approved a number of Emirati companies For their role in financing the group, it didn’t turn off billions of dollars defense And Technology Agreement between the two governments in Trump’s first year.
In September, the diplomatic group known as the Quad — the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — Announced a joint resolution for the peace process. The joint agreement itself was significant: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates were supporting opposing sides in the conflict, and Arab powers were at loggerheads. Previous diplomatic efforts have failed. The deal was unlikely to be agreed as long as RSF was fighting to take on El Fasher, but that dynamic appears to have shifted.
The UAE may finally begin to reconsider supporting a militia widely accused of genocide. The massacre in El Fasher drew international attention to the UAE’s alleged role in the war and its profits. Fueling the conflict stemmed from the gold trade. Last week, a senior Emirati diplomat said his government had He made a mistake by supporting the coup which took power in 2019, a rare admission of missteps on its Sudan policy. In recent years, the United Arab Emirates has supported a Proxy networks of insurgent and separatist groups As it aims to expand its regional influence throughout the Middle East and North Africa, but in its involvement in Sudan, the reputational costs may begin to outweigh the strategic benefits.
Neither of these does resolution War in Sudan is highly unlikely, but freezing current frontlines to allow badly needed humanitarian aid into conflict areas is at least a possibility.
Sudan is one in many ways Archeology 21st century warfare: Defined in part by a hybrid civil war/international conflict Declining US influence and the growing role of “middle powers” such as the United Arab EmiratesExtensive use included Foreign military contractors And the drones, and the international customs fluttering around Use of force and protection of civilians. Unfortunately, despite some recent reasons for optimism, it is perhaps emblematic of 21st-century wars like those in Ukraine and Gaza in another way: it is extraordinarily difficult to end.
