The Republican Party has had a good day.
In Tuesday’s off-year elections, the GOP lost every major race by a mile. Democratic candidates Virginia wins the governor’s race By about 15 points, the New Jersey gubernatorial election by 13, and Georgia statewide public commissioner election More than 25 points. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Supreme Court Justice retained their seat by a landslide.
All of these results represent a huge improvement over the Democratic Party’s showing just a year ago. Kamala Harris won Virginia and New Jersey by just 6 points, while losing Pennsylvania and Georgia by nearly 2 points.
Polls expected a Democratic victory in Tuesday’s key gubernatorial race. But they are severely underestimated scale Success for the Democrats. The party appears to have had an exceptionally high turnout among its base for the off-year election — And A significant number of swing voters won. Indeed, Tuesday’s blue tide rose high enough to lift even Democrats’ leaky boats: In Virginia, the Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones Managed to ensure a comfortable victory, although Republicans leaked text messages wishing children dead.
Tuesday’s results will directly affect the broader political project of the Republican Party in several ways. For example, Virginia Democrats now have prospects Draw a new congressional map It’s less favorable to GOP candidates.
But for many Republicans, this year’s election is most concerning for what it might tell us about their party’s future. Simply put, the results indicate that the GOP has become dangerously dependent on voters who will only turn out for President Donald Trump — a man who will (almost certainly) never be on the ballot again.
The GOP relies on the majority of voters who don’t get into politics
Over the past 10 years, Trump has reshaped the Republican coalition. Between 2012 and 2024, The GOP gained 6 points Vote share with non-college-educated voters while losing 2 points with college grads.
But Trump didn’t just create a less-educated Republican coalition — he created a less Politically involved Americans started when the GOP was at the helm Polarization based on their political engagement — How often they tend to vote and how important politics is to their identity. Highly politically engaged Americans moved to the left, while the disengaged moved to the right.
At first glance, this might look like a bad trade for Republicans. All else equal, you’d rather have voters who reliably show up to the polls (hence why politicians have historically catered to retirees with lots of free time on election days). But Trump’s realignment has worked well enough for his party — because there are a lot Politically isolated, working-class people in swing states. And during the presidential years, Trump’s personal appeal was enough to rally them in large numbers.
Perhaps the biggest question in American politics is this: What will happen to Trump-era reconstruction if the Republicans nominate someone else?
There was a catch though. While Trump’s GOP has held its own in the presidential race, it has tended to disappoint in less high-profile election years. Democrats dominate 2018 Midterms and did unusually well For a party in power in 2022 elections. In general, it appears that the Democrats now have one Advantages of low voter turnout electionsContrary to long-term historical norms.
Taken together, winning two of the three presidential races — at the cost of doing poorly in off-year special elections and some midterm elections — isn’t a bad deal. The concern for Republicans, however, is whether the upside of this bargain will end Trump’s political career.
Barring constitutional change (or crisis), Trump will never again be the GOP’s presidential nominee. Perhaps the biggest question in American politics is this: What will happen to Trump-era reconstruction if the Republicans nominate someone else?
The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that college-educated Never Trumpers remain staunch Democrats — though less engaged, working-class Trump voters will revert to political apathy.
Tuesday’s results make that future a little more credible. In Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats dominate highly educated suburbs which were once highly competitive. Meanwhile, Republican turnout in those states was at least relative to what Democrats showed. After checking Tuesday night’s returns, conservative commentator Eric Erickson Disappointingly announced“Trump can’t vote unless he’s on the ballot, and that will never happen again.”
In many cases, the GOP is going out of its way to bolster the leftward shift of highly educated, politically engaged voters. Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s heir apparent, has made protecting a priority The young neo-Nazis of his party To make Trumpism more palatable to cosmopolitan college grads. Meanwhile, President Md Increase in consumer prices, judging his enemies, Try to deplatform his critics, defile his officeAnd Engaged in open corruption.
Democrats shouldn’t be planning their 2028 winning team right now
All this said, off-year gubernatorial election results are not a reliable guide to future political developments. A lot can happen between now and the medium term (let alone between now and 2028).
Further — precisely because Democrats now have an advantage in low-turnout polls — Tuesday’s events may paint a misleadingly favorable picture of the party’s long-term prospects. When the Democrats dominate 2023 Special ElectionMany in the party concluded that it was on track to defeat Trump next year. But it turned out to be wrong. The subset of voters who bothered with off-year elections were far more Democratic than the electorate as a whole.
This same pattern may play out again. It’s possible that the GOP’s most estranged supporters will simply turn to Trump. But an equally valid assumption is that they will only turn out for the presidential election – where they will vote for the MAGA nominee on the ballot. Until the Republicans nominate someone named Donald Trump, we simply won’t know.
What’s more, the Republican coalition better matches America’s electoral geography. The median US state is more conservative and working-class than the US as a whole. Because of this, Trump has a structural advantage over the GOP Fight for control of the SenateWhich the Democrats still don’t have good odds To cross in 2026 or 2028.
Regardless, the Trump GOP’s reliance on low-propensity voters is a clear weakness. And the 2025 election showed us why: If you want a picture of a democratic future, imagine hyper-engaged, suburban wine-drinkers stuck on Vance’s face — forever (or, you know, in the 2028 election).
